Babyboom in Indonesia
Melihat lagi postingan saya tentang populasi di Indonesia yang masih “bottom heavy” saya mulai bertanya, sampai kapankah kita akan “memproduksi” bayi lebih banyak dari orangtua kita? Iseng-iseng mencari data populasi di Indonesia dan prediksinya ke beberapa tahun mendatang.
Ternyata menurut beberapa analis, generasi kitalah yang akan memproduksi bayi paling banyak, setelah itu bayi yang lahir akan mulai menurun quantitasnya. Kalau ini betul, maka banyak dampak yang harus mulai kita pikirkan di depannya.
- Tenaga kerja akan banyak sekali tersedia sedangkan modernisasi dan efisiensi sedang galak dilakukan untuk mengurangi kebutuhan akan karyawan. Sudah saatnya ngajarin anak kita untuk jadi entrepreneur, agar tidak tergantung cari kerja, seperti kita… eh gue ding.
- Pasar Indonesia akan tetap growing dan menjadi sangat potensial dalam beberapa tahun mendatang, setelah itu ya pinter pinter cari ceruk pasar lah.
- Terus kalau mereka sudah tua, siapa yang support? Gerakan menabung (lebih tepatnya investasi) perlu di galakkan dari sekarang
- Jangan terlalu mengandalkan Negara… Pajak kita dikemplang kiri-kanan, yang korupsi sepertinya malah di proteksi. Orang yang mau jadi whistle-blower malah diringkus.. duh… (apa kabar Pak Susno Duadji…)
Berikut ini adalah beberapa chart yang saya ambil dari nation master
Indonesia is in a good mood
Last year is not a good year for most of us, that is what I heard from some friends in some industries, many are missed their volume yearly target.
Retail study shown that generally most product sales were declining starting in Q4 2008, Q1 2009 situation is getting worst and stabilize in low level in Q2 and Q3. In Q4 though, I saw some recovery in sales and Indonesia managed to close 2009 festive season just slightly higher than last year.
I read another report today, this time is among consumers (among Internet users, done by Nielsen global in almost all countries), impressively saying that Indonesian has the highest confidence level when asked about economic condition compare to any country in the world.
2009 Indonesia advertising spend
Nielsen Indonesia just released 2009 Advertising spend to public and they give me permission to share it in this blog. Before reading this further, please read the note first:
“Nielsen Advertising Services dihitung berdasarkan gross rate card, tanpa menghitung diskon, promo, dll.”
Ok, now some important figures:
- Total Spending 48.5 trillions Rups (+16%)
- 29 + trillion spent on TV (+14%)
- 16 + trillion spent on Newspaper (+23%)
- 1 + trillion spend on Magz (+6%)
The biggest category advertised on TV are : Telco, Clove Cigarettes, Hair Care, Government & Politics, Facial Care, Hotline & Partyline, Snacks & Biscuits, Laundry Products, Coffee & Tea, Fruit & Vegetable Juice
While the biggest Company spender on TV : AXIS, Aqua, 3 (Three), Excelcomindo XL, Clear Anti Ketombe, Indosat M3, Mie Sedaap, Presidential Candidate, Rinso, Telkomsel
See the slideshow below (wait to load the data..).
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For more information Please contact:
Maika Randini/Pahala Sigiro/Ditha Yuri Utami
Business Development, Nielsen Media Research
Ph. (021) 521 2200 ext 189/231/321 Fax. (021) 521 1927
Short market update on Nov 2009
Despite all the macro economic indicator (GDP, Inflation, Interest rate, federal reserve) is showing positive trend In Indonesia, we see that the consumers still reluctant to spend their money. Even in the festive season during lebaran period, the retail trend is showing a slower growth rate compare to last year.
This year growth is ‘low’ single digit compare to the same festive season year ago. Which previously was always be in the double digit growth.
There are only two product category that grow faster than last year growth namely : Syrup and Beverages. Syrup is growing faster because the key player give a significant discount, while beverage is because one of the new brand coming in to the market who does really well uplifting the beverage category market which otherwise has similarly weak performance as other categories.
Thats short update on Indonesia Economic as of Nov 2009, Contact Nielsen Indonesia for more info
Vidi Nur Ma’rufin
Cintailah Produk-Produk Indonesia !!!
In the past few weeks or so, if you watch TV a lot, you will watch ads from Maspion for their range of products… it is actually quite funny in someway. The endorser is Titik Puspa and one guy which I assume is the CEO or the owner. In the end of the ad both endorser says ” Cintailah Produk Produk Indonesia”, and not mentioning their brand. Read more
Indonesian 2008 Car Sales
2008 is probably the best year for Indonesian Car Industry, the 2008 total (wholesale) sales is exceeding 600.000 mark, making it the highest one year sales ever.
In comparison, 2007 the car sales is only around 450.000, so this year sales is almost 50% higher than last year figure. But in the past two months (Nov and Dec 2008 ) the sales is declining. So I think this industry feeling the heat of economic crisis. more about it you can read it here :
http://www.rodagila.com/2009/01/penjualan-mobil-sepanjang-tahun-2008.html
Here is the the figure :
|
Merek
|
2008
|
Pangsa
|
Pos
|
2007
|
% Kenaikkan |
|
Daihatsu
|
78.020 | 12,9% |
3
|
51.957 | 50% |
|
Honda
|
52.500 | 8,6% |
5
|
40.000 | 31% |
|
Isuzu
|
25.325 | 4,2% | 18.270 | 39% | |
|
Mazda
|
2.241 | 0,4% | 1.336 | 68% | |
|
Mitsubishi
|
87.524 | 14,4% |
2
|
61.548 | 42% |
|
Nissan
|
31.738 | 5,2% | 19.030 | 67% | |
|
Suzuki
|
73.066 | 12,0% |
4
|
58.095 | 26% |
|
Toyota
|
211.911 | 34,9% |
1
|
150.631 | 41% |
|
Lain-lain
|
44.826 | 7,4% | 33.606 | 33% | |
|
Total
|
607.151 |
|
|
434.473 | 40% |
2009 Indonesian economic outlook
A good thing working in marketing research company is that you have a lot of the data to see how the overall manufacturer is doing.
In 2008, most (if not all) product category is increasing in value compare to 2007, this is mostly driven by pricing increase. However in terms of volume, it is totally different story, some of the product category is actually showing a negative growth (or stagnant). Even in milk category which usually quite resilient in time of crisis, is shrinking in some segments.
Looking at the above and also the financial crisis in US and Europe which start to impacting the financial business in Indonesia, I a bit pessimistic about 2009 outlook. Few companies (mostly export oriented) already start to lay off their employee, which also mean that it will reduce the product affordability.
